In fiscal year (FY) General Fund/General Purpose (GF/GP) and School Aid Fund (SAF) revenue is expected to total $18.8 billion, up 6.6% from FY 2009-10. The increase reflects an improving economy, combined with lower income tax refunds, and is $557.3 million above the January 2011 consensus estimate. General Fund/General Purpose revenue is estimated to rise 12.8% to $7.7 billion while SAF revenue will increase 2.7% to $11.1 billion.
In FY 2011-12, the economy will grow more slowly than in FY 2010-11, resulting in slower revenue growth. General Fund/General Purpose and SAF revenue will total an estimated $19.2 billion, up 2.2% from FY 2010-11 and $690.5 million above the January 2011 consensus estimate. General Fund/General Purpose revenue is expected to increase 2.3% from the FY 2010-11 level to $7.8 billion and SAF revenue is projected to grow 2.1% to $11.3 billion.
In FY 2012-13, GF/GP and SAF revenue will total an estimated $19.3 billion. This initial estimate for FY 2012-13 is 0.7% higher than the revised estimate for FY 2011-12, with substantial tax changes causing revenue to grow much more slowly than economic conditions would suggest. General Fund/General Purpose revenue will total an estimated $7.6 billion, a decline of 2.6% from FY 2011-12, while SAF revenue will rise to an estimated $11.7 billion, a 3.0% increase.
The new question is: “Why, with a big surplus in the state’s school budget, is my school district being cut so much?” The answer at this point seems to be: "Because we can.” That’s probably not going to go over well.
Even as lawmakers were casting politically perilous votes to cut schools in the past few weeks, an assumption was emerging that the state could have as much as $500 million more in revenue than was estimated in January.
According to an analysis released Friday by the state House Fiscal Agency, the tax overhaul will cost the School Aid Fund more than $660 million a year. In 2011-12, the lose of revenues from the business tax means the State Aid Fund will have $10.6 billion versus $11.3 billion. That equates to about $440 per student.