How Generations Drive the Fourth Turnings

“The Fourth Turning is Here,” but what does that mean? 

Neil Howe and the late William Strauss’s Fourth Turning theory suggests that history follows a cyclical pattern of generational dynamics, broken into four “turnings,” each lasting approximately 20–25 years.

Having read pretty much everything written on this cycle of human history, alongside ChatGPT 4o (AI) I’ve put together this short (and incomplete) guide that covers the current and previous three Fourth Turning periods. Then, I expanded on the current saeculum (a normal, long life of 80 to 100 years) to illustrate the roles of the generations and provide a closing summary of how the current Fourth Turning has progressed, along with a very short hypothetical outcome.

Why Generations?

Howe and Strauss organized their Fourth Turning theory around “generations” because they observed that distinct patterns of behavior, attitudes, and roles emerge in society based on when people are born and how they experience formative historical events. By focusing on generations, they could link historical cycles to human lifespans, creating a framework that ties individual experiences to broader societal dynamics. Here’s why generations were central to their theory:

1. Generations as Agents of Change: Generations reflect the collective attitudes, values, and behaviors of people shaped by shared experiences during formative years. These shared experiences influence how a generation responds to and drives historical events:

    - Childhood Experiences: Generations grow up in different societal climates (e.g., times of crisis, awakening, or stability), shaping their outlooks and priorities.

    - Coming-of-Age Moments: Adolescence and early adulthood are when individuals often engage with the major events of their time, solidifying generational identities.

    - Lifecycle Roles: Generations move through predictable stages of life—youth, midlife, elderhood—and contribute uniquely to society in each stage.

2. Historical Continuity and Predictability: By organizing history into generational cycles, Howe and Strauss identified recurring patterns over centuries:

    - Every 80-100 years (a “saeculum” or “normal long life”), society goes through a full cycle of four turnings: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.

    - Generations evolve through these turnings in predictable roles, shaping and being shaped by the societal mood of their time.

    - This generational focus allowed them to link personal lives to historical events, showing how individuals contribute to collective shifts.

3. Generational Archetypes and Historical Roles: Howe and Strauss identified four recurring generational archetypes—Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist—that reappear in the same order across saecula. Each archetype plays distinct roles during the turnings:

    - Prophet (Idealist): Visionaries who drive awakenings and cultural revolutions, often polarizing during crises.

    - Nomad (Reactive): Pragmatic and independent, they stabilize society during turmoil but resist authority.

    - Hero (Civic): Team-oriented and optimistic, they lead during crises and rebuild society afterward.

    - Artist (Adaptive): Sensitive and cooperative, they refine and sustain new institutions during periods of peace.

These archetypes create a rhythm to history, where generational roles contribute to the resolution or intensification of societal challenges.

4. Generations Bridge Personal and Societal Change: Howe and Strauss wanted to explain how individual life stories intersect with major historical events. Generational theory provides a way to:

    - Connect Personal and National Narratives: It explains why individuals of the same age group experience similar challenges and opportunities in response to societal changes.

    - Highlight Intergenerational Tensions: Understanding generational dynamics illuminates conflicts and cooperation between older and younger generations, offering insights into societal evolution.

    - Anticipate the Future: By identifying patterns in generational behavior, the theory helps predict how society may evolve in response to current challenges.

5. Historical Examples Validate Generational Patterns: Howe and Strauss drew on historical data, showing that generational cycles repeatedly aligned with major societal transformations:

    - The Revolutionary War featured a Hero generation (Republican) rebuilding a new nation and Prophets (Awakeners) providing ideological guidance.

    - The Civil War saw a clash of ideals driven by Prophets (Transcendentals) and practical action by Heroes (Union).

    - The Great Depression and World War II showcased a Hero generation (G.I.s) creating a new global order under the influence of Prophet leaders (Missionary).

These patterns validated their decision to use generations as the organizing principle of their theory. Howe and Strauss focused on generations in their Fourth Turning theory because they provide a coherent way to connect individual life experiences with long-term societal cycles. Generations act as both products and drivers of history, shaping and being shaped by the turnings in a predictable rhythm. This generational framework gives the theory its explanatory power and predictive potential.

Generational Turnings Chart

The dates shown in the chart above represent the periods of time each member of that generation in or entering adulthood was born. It’s important to note that generational theory doesn’t imply that each and every member exhibits the same traits. Rather, the generation as a whole tends to internalize and exhibit these traits, however, there can be many outliers, particularly on the extreme ends of each generational period of time.

The Fourth Turning is always a period of crisis, where institutions are destroyed and rebuilt, and society fundamentally reshapes itself. Here’s how the current Fourth Turning aligns with the previous three, along with the generational roles in each (see chart above for the birth years of each generation):

1. The Revolutionary War (1773–1794)

Crisis: The American colonies faced existential challenges, including the fight for independence from Britain, the Revolutionary War, and the establishment of the United States under the Constitution.

Generational Roles:

    Hero (Civic): The Republican Generation, young soldiers and revolutionaries, were the driving force in the war effort and institutional rebuilding.

    Artist (Adaptive): The Compromise Generation, children during the war, provided support and later helped refine and stabilize the new institutions.

    Prophet (Idealist): The Awakening Generation, passionate and visionary leaders, like Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, provided ideological guidance.

    Nomad (Reactive): The Liberty Generation, skeptical and pragmatic adults, navigated the chaotic social and economic conditions.

2. The Civil War (1860–1865)

Crisis: America grappled with the moral and political crisis of slavery, culminating in the Civil War, which threatened the nation’s survival. The period also involved Reconstruction and redefining national unity.

Generational Roles:

    Hero (Civic): The Union Generation, young soldiers, fought on both sides of the war and later worked to rebuild the fractured nation.

    Artist (Adaptive): The Gilded Generation, children during the war, matured in a period of rebuilding and reconciliation.

    Prophet (Idealist): The Transcendental Generation, including abolitionists and reformers, ignited the ideological conflicts that precipitated the war.

    Nomad (Reactive): The Lost Generation of the era provided pragmatic, albeit divisive, leadership during the prewar tensions and Reconstruction.

3. The Great Depression and World War II (1929–1946)

Crisis: The United States faced economic collapse, social upheaval, and the global challenge of fascism in World War II. The outcome redefined global power structures and solidified America’s role as a superpower.

Generational Roles:

    Hero (Civic): The G.I. Generation, young soldiers and home-front workers, won the war and built the postwar institutions.

    Artist (Adaptive): The Silent Generation, children during the war, helped maintain and refine postwar stability.

    Prophet (Idealist): The Missionary Generation, shaped by the Progressive Era, provided moral and strategic leadership during the crisis.

    Nomad (Reactive): The Lost Generation, cynical survivors of World War I, offered pragmatic leadership in an era of scarcity and hardship.

4. The Current Fourth Turning (2008–Present)

Crisis: The current period is marked by systemic financial instability (2008 financial crisis), political polarization, cultural upheaval, climate change, pandemics, and geopolitical tensions. A climaxing event (or series of events) is anticipated to reshape institutions and societal norms.

Generational Roles:

    Hero (Civic): Millennials, coming of age during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to spearhead the rebuilding of society.

    Artist (Adaptive): Generation Alpha (and youngest Gen Z), children during this era, will grow up in the shadow of crisis, emerging as a stabilizing force.

    Prophet (Idealist): Baby Boomers, shaped by the consciousness revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, play a polarizing role as they try to impose their vision of values and legacy on the crisis.

    Nomad (Reactive): Generation X, cynical and pragmatic, serves as midlife leaders and managers, navigating the chaos and working towards practical solutions.

Key Similarities Across the Fourth Turnings

    Institutional Collapse and Renewal: Each Fourth Turning destroys outdated institutions and ideologies, leading to the creation of new systems better suited to the era’s needs.

    Intergenerational Dynamics: Younger generations (Hero) take active roles in reshaping society, while older generations (Prophet) provide vision and older leadership (Nomad) stabilizes.

    Pivotal Conflicts: All Fourth Turnings involve existential crises that redefine national identity and global positioning.

    Economic and Social Restructuring: Major economic disruptions accompany each crisis, driving the need for structural reform.

Differences in the Current Fourth Turning

Globalization: Unlike earlier turnings, this crisis unfolds in a deeply interconnected world, with challenges like climate change requiring unprecedented global cooperation.

Technology: The digital revolution shapes both the crisis and the potential solutions, introducing rapid communication and societal transformation.

Cultural Fragmentation: The scale of political and cultural polarization in the current Fourth Turning may surpass previous crises, complicating resolution.

Predicted Outcome of the Current Fourth Turning

Like the prior crises, the current Fourth Turning is expected to conclude with a fundamental reshaping of society by the late 2020s or early 2030s. Whether this leads to renewal or decline depends on how the generational dynamics play out and whether society can successfully address its core challenges.

In the current saeculum, which began after World War II, we have experienced three completed turnings and are currently in the Fourth Turning. Here is a summary of each turning, along with the generational roles:

    1. First Turning: The American High (1946–1964)

Overview: A postwar era of growth, optimism, and institutional confidence. Society was focused on collective goals, stability, and rebuilding from the war’s devastation. The Cold War began, shaping domestic and international policies. Key cultural elements included suburbanization, the baby boom, and the rise of consumerism.

Generational Roles:

Prophet (Idealist, Boomers): Children during this time, Boomers were raised with strong values and optimism, preparing to challenge the system in the future.

Nomad (Reactive, Silent Generation): Pragmatic young adults focused on adapting to the new stability and supporting institutional rebuilding.

Hero (Civic, G.I. Generation): Midlife leaders and builders, the G.I. Generation established strong institutions and guided the rebuilding effort.

Artist (Adaptive, Generation X): Too young to play a role, they were still being born.

    2. Second Turning: The Consciousness Revolution (1964–1984)

Overview: A period of cultural upheaval and questioning of traditional institutions. Social movements like civil rights, feminism, environmentalism, and anti-war protests reshaped societal values. The economy stagnated, and political polarization grew.

Generational Roles:

Prophet (Idealist, Boomers): Young adults and activists, Boomers led the charge in questioning authority and sparking cultural movements.

Nomad (Reactive, Silent Generation): Midlife managers and cultural stabilizers, the Silent focused on family life and incremental change.

Hero (Civic, G.I. Generation): Elder statesmen and institutional defenders, they resisted the cultural upheaval and worked to maintain the status quo.

Artist (Adaptive, Generation X): Children during this time, Generation X grew up in an era of less supervision, leading to skepticism and independence.

    3. Third Turning: The Culture Wars (1984–2008)

Overview: A period of individualism, deregulation, and weakening of institutions. Economic growth during the 1980s and 1990s masked underlying societal divides. The rise of political and cultural polarization defined the era, including debates over moral and societal values.

Generational Roles: 

Prophet (Idealist, Boomers): Midlife leaders and ideologues, Boomers dominated political and cultural discourse, amplifying polarization.

Nomad (Reactive, Generation X): Young adults and pragmatists, Gen X adapted to institutional decay and focused on personal success.

Hero (Civic, Millennials): Children during this time, Millennials were protected and raised with an emphasis on teamwork and optimism, preparing to take on a unifying role in the future.

Artist (Adaptive, Silent Generation): Elder caretakers and guides, the Silent Generation played supporting roles as advisors and mediators.

    4. Fourth Turning: The Crisis Era (2008–Present)

Overview: A period of systemic crisis and institutional breakdown, marked by the 2008 financial crash, political instability, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Society faces an existential challenge that will define the future. The resolution of this turning will reshape societal structures and values, as has occurred in prior Fourth Turnings.

Generational Roles:

Prophet (Idealist, Boomers): Elder ideologues, Boomers play polarizing roles, pushing for their vision of societal outcomes.

Nomad (Reactive, Generation X): Midlife pragmatists, Gen X leads in practical, managerial roles, navigating institutional failure.

Hero (Civic, Millennials): Young adults and societal rebuilders, Millennials are poised to take leadership roles in creating new systems.

Artist (Adaptive, Gen Z/Alpha): Children and young people, they are growing up in the shadow of crisis and will become stabilizers in the next saeculum.

Summary

The current saeculum follows the familiar pattern of rising institutions (First Turning), cultural awakening (Second Turning), institutional decay (Third Turning), and crisis (Fourth Turning). Each generation plays a distinct role shaped by the time in which they were born and raised, contributing uniquely to the resolution and direction of society at each stage. So how has the current saeculum (1946 to ??) played out and what is a possible hypothetical outlook on where we are headed?

The current saeculum, beginning after World War II, unfolded through a series of generational transitions and cultural shifts that have brought us to the present Fourth Turning—a time of crisis and potential rebirth. This saeculum began with a period of high institutional confidence, transitioned through cultural upheaval and fragmentation, and now finds itself at a crossroads where the decisions of today will shape the world for decades to come.

The First Turning: The American High (1946–1964)

The aftermath of World War II ushered in an era of optimism and institutional rebuilding. America became the world’s leading superpower, buoyed by its victory in the war and the economic prosperity of the postwar years. The Baby Boomer generation, born during this time, were raised in a stable and idealistic environment, shielded from the hardships their parents faced.

Society focused on collective goals, from the construction of suburban neighborhoods to the establishment of global alliances like NATO. This period saw the strengthening of institutions such as public education, social security, and the burgeoning civil rights movement, laying the groundwork for future change. Yet beneath this stability, the seeds of individualism and cultural questioning were being sown.

The Second Turning: The Consciousness Revolution (1964–1984)

The upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s shattered the conformity of the First Turning. Civil rights protests, the feminist movement, environmental activism, and opposition to the Vietnam War redefined societal values. Baby Boomers, now young adults, became the prophets of change, rejecting traditional authority and embracing personal liberation.

This awakening strained the institutions built during the prior turning, as faith in government, corporations, and religion began to falter. Watergate, stagflation, and the energy crises of the 1970s epitomized the period’s growing mistrust. Meanwhile, Generation X, coming of age in the shadow of this instability, learned to fend for themselves, developing a skeptical and pragmatic outlook.

The Third Turning: The Culture Wars (1984–2008)

During the 1980s and 1990s, society turned inward. The emphasis on individualism reached its peak as economic deregulation, technological innovation, and globalization reshaped the world. Political polarization deepened, with battles over cultural values defining the era. Millennials, born during this time, were raised with a strong sense of protection and teamwork, preparing them to become unifiers in the future.

Despite periods of prosperity, such as the dot-com boom, the cracks in societal cohesion widened. The 9/11 attacks signaled the fragility of the post-Cold War order, ushering in a new era of conflict and surveillance. By 2008, the financial crisis revealed the deep structural weaknesses in global systems, marking the end of the Third Turning and the beginning of the current Fourth Turning.

The Fourth Turning: The Crisis Era (2008–Present)

The Fourth Turning began with the Great Recession, a global financial collapse that destabilized economies and eroded trust in institutions. Political polarization escalated, as movements like the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street reflected widespread discontent. Millennials entered adulthood during these years, grappling with student debt, job precarity, and a sense of systemic betrayal.

The 2010s saw further fractures: rising authoritarianism, climate change disasters, and social unrest stemming from racial injustice and economic inequality. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 served as a global shock, exposing weaknesses in healthcare, governance, and international cooperation. Generation Z, shaped by these crises, is growing up in a world defined by uncertainty, yet with the potential to emerge as a stabilizing force in the future.

A Hypothetical Outlook for the Fourth Turning’s Climax and Resolution

As with prior Fourth Turnings, the current crisis will likely intensify before it resolves. A defining moment—a “climactic event” akin to the Revolutionary War, Civil War, or World War II—could occur. This could take the form of a geopolitical conflict, an unprecedented climate disaster, or a major societal reckoning over technology and governance. Whatever the crisis, it will demand collective action and sacrifice, reshaping societal priorities.

Generational Roles in the Resolution:

    - Millennials (Hero): Now in leadership positions, Millennials will spearhead efforts to rebuild institutions, focusing on inclusivity, equity, and sustainability. Their emphasis on teamwork and community will drive the restructuring of systems.

    - Generation X (Nomad): Pragmatic and experienced, Gen X will serve as crucial managers and mediators, ensuring that the rebuilding process is grounded in practicality.

    - Boomers (Prophet): As elder statesmen or women, Boomers will provide ideological vision, though their polarizing influence may continue to complicate unity.

    - Gen Z/Alpha (Artist): Coming of age during the rebuilding, these generations will solidify and refine the new systems, prioritizing stability and adaptability.

The Rebirth of a New Era

By the late 2020s or early 2030s, the Fourth Turning will likely resolve into a new First Turning, characterized by a period of optimism, reconstruction, and unity. The lessons of the crisis will shape a fresh set of institutions, reflecting the values of the rising generations. Climate resilience, technological ethics, and global cooperation may define this new era, offering hope for a brighter future.

As history has shown, the saeculum’s cycle continues, driven by the interplay of generational dynamics and societal challenges. The resolution of this Fourth Turning, though fraught with peril, holds the promise of renewal and transformation.

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Here's a listing of primary sources which provide a comprehensive overview of Howe and Strauss's Fourth Turning theory and its application to historical and contemporary events:

1. Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069. New York: William Morrow & Company, 1991 (introduces the concept of generational archetypes and the recurring patterns of generational cycles in American history)

2. Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny. New York: Broadway Books, 1997 (expands on the cyclical theory, focusing on the four turnings within a saeculum and predicting the onset of a crisis era in the early 21st century) – Penguin House bestseller

3. Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation. New York: Vintage Books, 2000 (explores the millennial generation’s role in shaping the future, providing a closer look at how generational theory applies to contemporary times)

4. Hais, Michael, and Morley Winograd. Millennial Momentum: How a New Generation Is Remaking America. Piscataway: Rutgers University Press, 2011 (applies Strauss and Howe’s generational theory to the political and cultural impact of Millennials)

5. Howe, Neil. The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2023 (this recent book provides updated insights on the Fourth Turning, focusing on its development and potential resolution) – Amazon bestseller

Websites:

Fourth Turning Official Website: This site offers detailed information on the theory, including summaries of the four turnings and generational archetypes. https://www.fourthturning.com/

The Art of Manliness Podcast: An episode featuring Neil Howe delves into the Fourth Turning theory and its implications for current events. https://www.artofmanliness.com/character/knowledge-of-men/podcast-913-the-fourth-turning-how-historys-crisis-period-could-unfold/

WBUR Interview with Neil Howe: This interview discusses the current Fourth Turning and its significance for America. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2024/05/28/history-cycles-4th-turning

Distract and Divide

The following is based on my extensive reading and research on an issue that is rooted in history and becoming ever more concerning in today’s divisive environment, especially when coupled with a growing lack of civility.

The old “white-replacement” theory is nothing but a fear-mongering tactic designed to manipulate working- and middle-class people into fighting one another, all while the rich continue to profit off our labor. This strategy isn’t new—it echoes what wealthy landowners did in the Southern Confederate states. Back then, the plantation-owning elite made up a tiny percentage of the population. To maintain control, they needed support from the rest of the white population, and they got it by manipulating fear. Enslaved people did the hard labor, freeing up poor whites from the most grueling work. But to keep these working-class whites in line, the elite used a powerful lie: If enslaved people were freed, they’d steal jobs, upend society, and yes, even take their women. 

None of this was true, but it didn’t have to be—the fear alone was enough to keep the lower classes loyal to the very system that exploited them. The wealthy used these tactics to keep white workers from realizing the real threat wasn’t freed slaves, but the elites themselves. Today, the same kind of manipulation is happening. 

The "white-replacement" theory is another lie, designed to stir up racial fear and divide us. It’s a smokescreen, distracting us from the real issues: the staggering concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few, stagnating wages, and the crushing of unions. By convincing us that racial others are our enemy, the elites prevent us from seeing that the real battle is economic. While we’re busy fighting each other over race, the rich get richer, keeping us working low-wage jobs and blaming someone else for our struggles. 

Just as the Confederate elites pitted poor whites against enslaved people, today’s oligarchs use fear of immigrants, people of color, and changing demographics to keep us from uniting against them. They make us believe our jobs and our livelihoods are at risk when the truth is, it’s their policies—policies that cut wages, slash benefits, and prevent any real worker solidarity—that are causing the harm.

The answer isn't to fear one another—it’s to recognize the true enemy. The ultra-wealthy elites keep us divided to protect their wealth. It’s time to stop falling for their lies. We must unite across racial and class lines and turn our focus where it belongs: on the system that exploits us all. Whether it’s through organizing, voting for policies that support workers, or rejecting the media narratives designed to sow division, we have to stop fighting for the crumbs off the table and demand the dignity and respect we all deserve. The real threat isn't your neighbor—it’s the billionaire class that wants us fighting for scraps while they feast on the fruits of our labor.

The REAL Second Amendment

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

In the wake of yet another school slaughter, I’m reposting what I pointed out several years ago after some research on the  historical background of the Second Amendment. It’s not what you think it is. I’m quite sure the former slave states would ban a discussion of this in their schools, and I’m also quite sure that folks who have little understanding of the actual history behind the founding of our country, the Constitution, and this amendment will blindly disagree with what follows. 

The Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which guarantees the right to bear arms, has often been viewed through the lens of individual liberty and self-defense. However, a deeper historical examination suggests that its origins may be rooted in a compromise aimed at placating southern slaveholding states. These states, particularly in the late 18th century, were deeply concerned about the possibility of slave uprisings and sought protections to maintain their control over enslaved populations.

In the years leading up to the drafting of the Bill of Rights, southern states like Virginia and South Carolina harbored large enslaved populations, often outnumbering free white citizens. The fear of slave revolts was pervasive, especially in light of successful uprisings like the one in Haiti. Slaveholders required organized militias to suppress potential rebellions quickly. State-controlled militias, which were largely composed of white male citizens, often doubled as "slave patrols," enforcing slave codes and quelling any threats of insurrection.

James Madison, the principal author of the Bill of Rights, was very aware of these concerns. When the U.S. Constitution was initially drafted in 1787, it centralized military power by creating a national army and giving the federal government the authority to regulate militias. Southern states feared that this shift in power would weaken their ability to control local militias, which were crucial for maintaining their system of slavery.

…as Virginia is looking at this Constitution and sees the federal control of the militia, this is when Patrick Henry and George Mason really started leading the charge. And that charge was about either scuttling the Constitution or getting a Bill of Rights to curtail the power of the central government and protecting the militia. Protecting the militia means that they are protecting slavery. ~ Carol Anderson, CNN interview May 30, 2021

To address these fears, the Second Amendment was included as part of the broader Bill of Rights, reassuring southern states that they could maintain their militias independent of federal interference. While the amendment is often framed in terms of a universal right to arms, its historical context points to a specific compromise designed to support the institution of slavery. By guaranteeing the right to bear arms and maintain militias, the amendment ensured that southern states could continue to deploy their militias as slave patrols, safeguarding the southern oligarchy’s power and control of slavery.

While states in the Founding era regulated guns—blacks were often prohibited from possessing firearms and militia weapons were frequently registered on government rolls—gun laws today are more extensive and controversial. ~ National Constitution Center

The Second Amendment was not simply about individual rights or resistance to tyranny but was an accommodation for southern states' reliance on militias to control enslaved people. This reading complicates the traditional narrative of the amendment as a straightforward defense of liberty, revealing its ties to the preservation of a brutal system of oppression.

If you want to learn more about the history of the Second Amendment, I recommend Carol Anderson’s book, “The Second: Race and Guns in a Fatally Unequal America.”

The Dangers of Authoritarianism: Lessons from History and Contemporary Examples

The prospect that the nation might knowingly put back in power a man who cozies up to authoritarian leaders, tried to overturn the results of a free and fair election, and promises to be a dictator himself (if only, he says, for a day) has not only alarmed but baffled Democrats. How could voters in the United States, a country that styles itself as a paragon of democracy, let this happen? ~ Susan Milligan, "Why Some Americans Really Do Want an Authoritarian in Charge," The New Republic, July 18, 2024

In recent years, and particularly since the 2016 presidential election, there has been a growing use of rhetoric suggesting that the United States might benefit from a dictator-led authoritarian government. Conservative extremists have particularly expressed frustration with our democratic processes, citing inefficiency, political gridlock, and the perceived moral decay of society as reasons to consider such a system. However, the history of authoritarian regimes, something which few pay any attention to, is rife with horrors, oppression, and the stifling of individual freedoms. The allure of strong leadership often comes at an immense cost, as historical and contemporary examples make abundantly clear.

The Suppression of Freedom and Dissent

One of the most immediate consequences of authoritarian rule is the suppression of political dissent and freedom of expression. In dictatorships, criticism of the government is typically met with severe punishment. Historically, regimes like those of Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and Maoist China have ruthlessly silenced opposition through imprisonment, forced labor, torture, and executions. Freedom of speech, a core value in our American democratic society, is often the first casualty under authoritarianism. State-controlled, or at least heavily influenced media and propaganda become the norm, drowning out any alternative viewpoints and manipulating public perception to maintain control. We are witnessing some of this in the battle over freedom of speech versus censorship on social media.

In modern examples, we see similar patterns in countries like North Korea, where dissent is non-existent, and even the slightest criticism of the regime can lead to severe punishment. The same can be said to a growing extent in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, especially on matters concerning his invasion and ongoing war against Ukraine. Journalists, activists, and ordinary citizens live in constant fear of surveillance, arrest, or worse. This climate of fear and repression stifles creativity, innovation, and the natural discourse that fosters progress and societal growth.

We have already experienced an authoritarian-style leadership in the guise of the Southern oligarchy (thought of as the opposite of democracy, an oligarchy is a small group exercising power and control especially for corrupt and selfish purposes) before, during, and after the Civil War. This was evident in the oligarchy’s treatment of abolitionists, poor whites, and formerly enslaved African Americans during Reconstruction. This group of wealthy landowners formed what is often referred to as a "planter aristocracy." They dominated Southern politics, economics, and society. Even though there were democratic elections, political power remained in the hands of a small class of elites who had a vested interest in maintaining the system of slavery. This mirrors authoritarian systems where a small ruling class holds sway over the lives of the broader population.

Before the war, dissent against slavery was violently suppressed in the South. Abolitionists were silenced through intimidation, threats, and even lynching. Anti-slavery literature was banned, and people caught distributing it faced severe punishment. The oligarchs justified these actions by portraying slavery as essential to their way of life and the economic stability of the region, much as authoritarian regimes suppress dissent in the name of “national security” or “stability.”

After the Civil War, Southern elites regained control during the Reconstruction era by opposing reforms aimed at promoting racial equality. The rise of groups like the Ku Klux Klan, supported by Southern oligarchs, allowed them to terrorize African Americans and white allies who supported Reconstruction. By disenfranchising Black voters through Jim Crow laws, poll taxes, literacy tests, and violence, they effectively suppressed any political challenge to their authority, much like authoritarian regimes suppress opposition through rigged elections and political persecution. Similar structures and restrictions could easily be implemented by an authoritarian dictator today.

Control of Information and Education

In authoritarian regimes, control of the media and educational systems is essential to maintaining the status quo by ensuring that citizens are exposed only to information that supports the ruling elite’s narrative. The Southern oligarchy similarly controlled the flow of information and education in the South.

Before the Civil War, the Southern elite tightly controlled education and the press, preventing the spread of abolitionist ideas. Newspapers that advocated for emancipation or critiqued slavery were suppressed, and people were prosecuted for distributing anti-slavery literature. By controlling the information that was accessible to the general population, the Southern elite could maintain the illusion of a stable, just society.

After the Civil War, the Southern oligarchy worked to ensure that African Americans had limited access to education, believing that an educated Black population would challenge the social order. The establishment of segregated schools, poorly funded and resourced, was a deliberate tactic to keep African Americans in a subordinate economic and social position. This mirrors authoritarian tactics of controlling education and preventing the rise of intellectual opposition to the regime.

Around the world today, some of the most brutal regimes such as the Taliban and Iran limit education to males only, for the most part suppressing the right of girls and women to attend schools.

The Erosion of Human Rights

Human rights violations are a hallmark of authoritarian regimes. When power is concentrated in the hands of a dictator or a small elite, the rights of individuals are often disregarded. The institution of America’s Southern slavery itself was a form of authoritarianism. Enslaved people were subjected to complete control by their owners, denied any personal freedoms, and subjected to brutal physical punishment to enforce submission. This system of forced labor and oppression was central to maintaining the power and wealth of the Southern oligarchy.

In more recent history, authoritarian regimes have committed some of the most egregious crimes against humanity. The Holocaust under Adolf Hitler’s Nazi regime, the Gulags in Stalin’s Soviet Union, and the Cultural Revolution in China under Mao Zedong all serve as chilling reminders of the atrocities that can occur when human rights are abandoned in favor of state control.

Even today, we witness massive human rights abuses in authoritarian countries. In China, the Uyghur Muslim population has been subjected to mass internment, forced labor, and cultural erasure in what many human rights organizations have called genocide. In countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, political opponents and activists are routinely imprisoned or assassinated. The concept of justice becomes entirely subjective, bending to the will of those in power rather than serving the people.

The Destruction of Democratic Institutions

One of the most significant risks of embracing authoritarianism is the dismantling of democratic institutions. The United States has long been governed by a system of checks and balances, which ensures that power is distributed among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government. These institutions are designed to prevent any one person or group from gaining too much control. However, in authoritarian systems, these checks and balances are quickly eroded or outright eliminated. 

For example, in Venezuela under Hugo Chávez and later Nicolás Maduro, democratic institutions were systematically dismantled. Independent courts were stacked with loyalists, the legislature was marginalized, and opposition leaders were imprisoned or forced into exile. What was once a promising democracy descended into a dictatorship that plunged the country into economic ruin, widespread corruption, and violence.

The weakening of democratic norms also erodes trust in elections. Leaders like Vladimir Putin in Russia and Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus have maintained their grip on power through manipulated elections, media control, and violent crackdowns on protesters. A shift towards authoritarianism in the U.S. could easily lead to similar outcomes, where elections become mere formalities, and political power is held indefinitely by a select few.

A scene from the 1956 film adaptation of “1984”;

The Centralization of Power and Corruption

Authoritarian regimes inherently concentrate power in the hands of a single leader or a small group of elites. This concentration of power breeds corruption, as there are few mechanisms for accountability. In regimes where leaders are unchecked, they often exploit their positions for personal gain, using state resources to enrich themselves and their inner circle.

Consider the case of Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe. Once hailed as a liberator, Mugabe’s 37-year rule was marked by rampant corruption, economic collapse, and political repression. The same can be seen in regimes across the world, from Mobutu Sese Seko’s kleptocracy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the oligarchs controlling much of Russia’s wealth under Putin’s rule.

In an authoritarian America, this centralization of power could lead to similar levels of corruption, where leaders prioritize their own wealth and status over the needs of the people. Without accountability, public services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure would likely deteriorate, while the elites continue to amass power and resources.

Economic Stagnation and Inequality

Authoritarian governments often lead to economic stagnation and inequality. While some dictatorships may initially promise economic stability or growth, the reality is often far bleaker. In many authoritarian states, the economy becomes dominated by cronyism, where only those with close ties to the regime benefit. This creates vast disparities in wealth and opportunity, while the general population suffers from poverty and lack of access to basic services.

The sharecropping and tenant farming systems that arose after our Civil War kept African Americans and poor whites in perpetual debt, ensuring that the oligarchs retained their economic dominance. In this way, the South’s elite mirrored authoritarian regimes that exploit the labor of the masses to maintain the wealth and power of a privileged few. Through a combination of laws, intimidation, and violence, the Southern oligarchy systematically disenfranchised African Americans and poor whites. By limiting access to the political process, the Southern elite ensured that they would remain in control of the region’s political and economic power, similar to how authoritarian regimes restrict voting rights and manipulate elections to retain power.

North Korea provides a stark example of this economic disparity. The ruling elite live in luxury while the vast majority of the population endures extreme poverty and famine. Even in wealthier authoritarian states, such as Saudi Arabia, economic inequality remains a significant issue. The vast oil wealth of the country is concentrated in the hands of the royal family, while many citizens struggle to make ends meet.

In the U.S., authoritarianism could exacerbate existing inequalities, with wealth and resources funneled toward those loyal to the regime while the majority are left behind. Without the protections provided by democratic institutions, social mobility and economic fairness would likely erode, leading to increased poverty and societal unrest.

Militarization and War

Historically, authoritarian regimes have often relied on militarization both to maintain internal control and to project power externally. Many authoritarian leaders justify their grip on power by invoking external threats, real or imagined, and ramping up military spending to solidify their rule. This militarization often leads to aggressive foreign policies and, in many cases, war.

The 20th century is filled with examples of authoritarian regimes leading their countries into catastrophic wars. Adolf Hitler’s aggressive expansionism led to the devastation of World War II, while the Soviet Union’s Cold War policies caused countless proxy wars and political conflicts around the globe. Even today, authoritarian regimes like Russia and China frequently engage in military posturing, creating instability in regions like Ukraine, Taiwan, and the South China Sea.

If the United States were to adopt an authoritarian model, the likelihood of increased militarization would be high. An authoritarian U.S. government could use the military to suppress domestic dissent and expand its influence globally, potentially leading to unnecessary conflicts and wars with devastating consequences.

Conclusion

...the guardrails that held Trump back in his first term would likely not suffice in a second. His party has been largely purged of people willing to oppose him openly. The president would have a cadre of loyalists who know this time, as one of our players said, “where the door handles are.” He would appoint few, if any, establishment figures like the ones who bottled up some of his authoritarian ideas in 2017. Resignation threats, which at the Justice Department partly deterred Trump in January 2021, seem less likely to do so again. Federal courts, increasingly partisan, are friendlier terrain for him now. ~ Barton Gellman, "How to Harden Our Defenses Against an Authoritarian President," Brennan Center for Justice, August 1, 2024

The desire for a strongman leader who can bypass the messiness of democratic governance may seem appealing to those frustrated with political gridlock or societal change. However, history teaches us that the cost of authoritarianism is immense. From the suppression of freedoms to the erosion of human rights, the destruction of democratic institutions, rampant corruption, and the potential for war, authoritarianism brings with it a host of horrors. As I pointed out, by maintaining racial and economic hierarchies through coercion, violence, and disenfranchisement, the Southern oligarchy created a system that, while not formally authoritarian, operated with many of the same oppressive mechanisms. This legacy continued to affect American society for decades, shaping the political, social, and economic structures of the South well into the 20th century. An authoritarian dictatorship embedded in our Constitution and laws would most certainly emulate this experience.

While no system of government is perfect, our American democratic experiment remains a safeguard against the very atrocities and oppression that authoritarianism inevitably brings. The dangers of embracing such a path cannot be overstated; to flirt with authoritarianism is to invite the collapse of the very freedoms and principles that define the United States.

Note: Limited assistance was provided by OpenAI ChatGPT 4o in researching and writing this essay.

Socialism: I do not think it means what you think it means

 "You keep saying that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

~ Inigo Montoya in The Princess Bride

I hear the word “socialism” so often that I feel it has either lost its original meaning and is used to describe something else or no longer has any meaning at all. I find that many Americans I know toss the word socialism around as if it were a synonym to communism or fascism. It is not. A simple, textbook comparison of the three tells us that:

• Socialism is a mixed-controlled economy with an emphasis on reducing inequity. It easily coexists with democracy and political pluralism, and it seeks to promote social welfare and equality.

• Communism advocates for the total abolition of private property with a fully communal economy. It typically leads to a one-party state with authoritarian rule and aims for a classless, stateless society.

• Fascism establishes a state-controlled economy where private property is retained but heavily regulated and aligned with specific state goals. It is dictatorial, with no tolerance for political opposition or democracy. It prioritizes the nation or a dominant race above all else, often leading to persecution of minorities.

The United States, as a democratic republic with a capitalist economy, does incorporate some elements from socialism. However, these components are adapted and integrated into a system that remains fundamentally capitalist and democratic.

Socialism is a political and economic system where the means of production—such as factories, land, and resources—are owned or regulated collectively by the community, usually through the state or cooperatives. The primary goal of socialism is to reduce economic inequality by ensuring that wealth and resources are distributed more evenly among the population. This contrasts with capitalism, where the means of production are privately owned, and profits are driven by market forces.

Socialism can take various forms, ranging from democratic socialism, where political and civil liberties are preserved within a democratic framework, to more authoritarian forms, where the state exercises significant control over economic and social life. The degree of government intervention and public ownership can vary widely depending on the specific type of socialism practiced.

In the context of our American society, certain government programs, policies, and institutions are often cited by some as examples of socialism or as having socialist characteristics, usually meant to be a slur by an opposing political or demographic group. While the label of "socialism" is politically charged and often used differently by various groups, the following are examples that arguably fall under the broad umbrella of socialism, or at least represent socialist principles. Some are not surprising but others in this list might be (Note: I worked with OpenAI’s ChatGPT 4o to assemble and massage the listings, below based on my understanding as well as the research behind socialism and socialist societies in history):

1. Social Security

• A federal program that provides retirement, disability, and survivors' benefits funded through payroll taxes. It represents a form of wealth redistribution, where working individuals pay into a system that supports retirees and others who qualify.

2. Medicare and Medicaid

• Government-funded healthcare programs for the elderly (Medicare) and low-income individuals (Medicaid). These programs are funded by taxpayers and aim to provide healthcare regardless of one's ability to pay, which aligns with socialist ideals of equitable access to resources.

3. Public Education

• K-12 public schools are funded by local, state, and federal taxes and are available to all children at no direct cost to families. This system is based on the idea that education is a public good that should be accessible to everyone.

• Colleges and Universities, as well as some trade and technical institutes, are partially funded in a similar way but are only available to those who either can afford the tuition and fees, which can often be tax-deductible, or qualify for income- or merit-based financial assistance paid for by taxpayers.

4. Public Housing

• Government-funded housing initiatives provide affordable housing options for low-income families, seniors, and people with disabilities. This can include housing projects, Section 8 vouchers, and other forms of assistance.

5. Welfare Programs

• Programs like Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as food stamps), and unemployment insurance provide financial support to individuals and families in need, funded by taxpayer money.

6. The Affordable Care Act (also referred to as “Obamacare”)

• While not fully socialist, the ACA expanded government regulation of the health insurance industry, provided subsidies to help people afford insurance, and expanded Medicaid in some states, increasing the role of government in ensuring access to healthcare.

7. Minimum Wage Laws

• Laws that set the lowest legal salary for workers. While not inherently socialist, minimum wage laws are seen by some as a government intervention in the free market to protect workers, which aligns with certain socialist principles.

8. Government-Owned Enterprises

• Entities like the United States Postal Service (USPS), Amtrak, and various public utilities (water, electricity, sewage systems, trash removal, natural gas) are often owned and operated by the government, or heavily regulated and monitored by it, providing services that are considered essential and are available to the public in some cases at standardized rates.

9. Labor Unions

• Though not a government program, labor unions advocate for workers' rights, including fair wages, benefits, and safe working conditions, often through collective bargaining. Unions are sometimes associated with socialist principles, most often when they push for worker ownership or control over the means of production.

10. Taxation

• The U.S. tax system is progressive, meaning that higher earners, at least on paper, pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes. This is often seen as a way to redistribute wealth, which is a key tenet of socialist ideology, however, in our complicated taxation system, many income and wealth-sheltering methods are used by high earners to avoid paying their “fair share” of taxes, leaving the burden to the middle and upper-lower income classes.

11. Government Bailouts

• When the government intervenes to support failing industries (e.g., the banking and auto industry bailouts in 2008-2009), it can be seen as a form of socialism, as the state is stepping in to control or influence key sectors of the economy.

12. Public Infrastructure

• The government funds and maintains infrastructure like roads, bridges, and public transportation systems, which are accessible to everyone. The idea that these essential services should be publicly funded and maintained reflects socialist principles.

13. National Parks and Public Lands

• National parks, forests, and public lands are managed by the government for the enjoyment of all citizens, rather than being privately owned. This public ownership of natural resources is in line with socialist ideas.

14. Subsidies for Agriculture and Industry

• The government provides financial support to various industries, particularly agriculture, to stabilize prices, ensure supply, and protect against market fluctuations. These can often take the form of local tax abatements to attract industries to an area. Some see these forms, often labeled as “corporate welfare,” as government interference in the free market, a socialist-like action.

15. Public Health Initiatives

• Programs like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and various public health campaigns that regulate and promote public health can be seen as forms of socialism because they represent government control over health-related issues for the common good.

16. Emergency Relief Programs

• Federal and state programs that provide aid during natural disasters (e.g., FEMA) or pandemics (e.g., stimulus checks during COVID-19) are seen by some as socialist because they involve government redistribution of resources.

These are just some of the most obvious examples that reflect varying degrees of government intervention, ownership, or redistribution that align with socialist principles, though they exist within a largely capitalist economy. The extent to which these are viewed as "socialist" can depend on one's political perspective.

But what if we eliminated so-called “socialist” programs in the U.S.?

If all programs and policies in the United States that are arguably considered socialist were completely eradicated, the country would undergo profound and far-reaching changes. The absence of these programs would dramatically alter the social, economic, and political landscape. Here's what America might look like:

1. No Social Security

• Impact on the Elderly: Without Social Security, millions of retirees, disabled individuals, and survivors who rely on these benefits would lose their primary or sole source of income. Poverty rates among the elderly would likely skyrocket, leading to increased homelessness and reliance on private charity or family support.

• Intergenerational Strain: Younger generations would face increased financial pressure to support elderly family members, potentially reducing their ability to save for their own futures or invest in education and home ownership.

2. No Medicare and Medicaid

• Healthcare Crisis: The elderly, low-income families, and disabled individuals would lose access to healthcare. Many would be unable to afford necessary medical treatments, leading to higher mortality rates, untreated chronic illnesses, and overall worsening public health.

• Increased Pressure on Private Insurance: Without Medicare and Medicaid, the private insurance market would face immense pressure. Costs could rise as hospitals and healthcare providers struggle to cover unpaid care.

3. No Public Education

• Education Inequality: The elimination of public schools would create a significant divide between those who can afford private education and those who cannot. Children from low- and middle-income families would have limited access to education, leading to a less educated workforce and widening economic inequality.

• Long-Term Economic Decline: A poorly educated population would harm the economy in the long run, reducing productivity, innovation, and global competitiveness.

4. No Public Housing

• Homelessness Surge: Without public housing programs, many low-income individuals and families would be unable to afford housing, leading to a dramatic increase in homelessness. Urban areas would likely see large encampments and a rise in associated public health issues.

• Real Estate Market Imbalance: The absence of affordable housing options would further drive up housing costs, exacerbating existing affordability crises in many cities.

5. No Welfare Programs (e.g., SNAP, TANF)

• Increased Poverty and Hunger: Without welfare programs, millions of low-income families, including children, would face severe poverty and hunger. This could also include elimination of subsidies for school lunches along with the free breakfast and lunch programs. The absence of safety nets would increase reliance on private charity, which may not be sufficient to meet the demand.

• Crime and Social Unrest: Desperation resulting from extreme poverty could lead to an increase in crime rates and social unrest, destabilizing communities and straining law enforcement.

6. No Minimum Wage Laws

• Exploitation of Workers: The elimination of minimum wage laws could lead to widespread exploitation, with many workers earning far below a living wage. This would deepen economic inequality and reduce overall consumer spending, negatively affecting the economy.

• Decreased Labor Rights: Workers would have less bargaining power, leading to worse working conditions, fewer benefits, and increased job insecurity.

7. No Government-Owned Enterprises

• Loss of Services: The absence of entities like the USPS and Amtrak could mean the loss of essential services, particularly in rural areas where private companies might not find it profitable to operate. Postal services could become more expensive and less accessible.

• Privatization and Price Increases: The privatization of these services might lead to higher costs for consumers and reduced access to critical infrastructure.

8. No Progressive Taxation

• Wealth Concentration: Without progressive taxation, the wealthiest individuals and corporations pay less in taxes, leading to an even greater concentration of wealth and power. This could exacerbate social divisions and reduce funding for public services.

• Reduction in Public Services: The overall tax revenue would decrease, leading to cuts in essential public services like infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

9. No Public Infrastructure Maintenance

• Deterioration of Roads, Bridges, and Public Transit: Without government funding, the maintenance and expansion of public infrastructure would be left to private entities, who may not invest adequately in non-profitable areas. This could lead to unsafe roads and bridges, reduced access to transportation, and a decline in overall quality of life.

• Economic Decline: Poor infrastructure would hamper economic activity, making it harder for goods and services to move efficiently, reducing competitiveness, and potentially leading to economic stagnation.

10. No National Parks and Public Lands

• Loss of Public Spaces: National parks and public lands could be sold to private entities, restricting access to natural spaces that have been preserved for public enjoyment. This could lead to environmental degradation and the loss of biodiversity as profit-driven activities replace conservation efforts.

• Cultural and Environmental Impact: The commercialization of these lands could lead to the destruction of historical sites and natural beauty, impacting tourism and national heritage.

11. No Subsidies for Agriculture and Industry

• Market Instability: Without government subsidies, farmers and key industries might face increased volatility, leading to higher food prices and potentially reduced food security. Smaller farms might struggle to compete, leading to further consolidation in the agricultural sector.

• Increased Consumer Costs: The lack of subsidies could lead to higher costs for consumers as industries pass on the full cost of production.

12. No Emergency Relief Programs

• Inadequate Disaster Response: The absence of federal emergency relief would leave states and localities to fend for themselves during natural disasters, leading to slower and less coordinated responses. This could result in higher casualties, prolonged recovery periods, and greater economic damage.

• Increased Vulnerability: Communities, especially those with fewer resources, would be more vulnerable to the impacts of disasters, deepening existing inequalities.

13. No Public Health Initiatives

• Public Health Decline: Without programs like the CDC and FDA, there would be less regulation and coordination in managing public health crises, leading to potential increases in preventable diseases, unsafe food and drug products, and overall public health risks.

• Higher Healthcare Costs: The absence of preventive public health measures could lead to higher healthcare costs as more people require treatment for conditions that could have been avoided or mitigated.

14. No Universal Basic Income (UBI) Proposals

• Continued Economic Disparity: Without UBI or similar programs, economic disparities might widen, particularly as automation and technology replace more jobs, leaving some without a basic safety net.

15. No Labor Unions

• Worker Disempowerment: Without unions, workers would have less ability to negotiate for fair wages, benefits, and safe working conditions. This could lead to a race to the bottom in terms of worker rights and pay, particularly in low-wage industries.

So, in summary, what would the overall impact of eliminating socialist-leaning programs lead to in the U.S.?

• Widening Economic Inequality: The elimination of socialist-leaning programs would likely result in a more stratified society, with extreme wealth concentrated in a small segment of the population, while a significant portion of the population would face poverty and economic insecurity.

• Decreased Social Mobility: With fewer public resources available for education, healthcare, and welfare, it would become harder for individuals to improve their economic status, leading to decreased social mobility.

• Social Unrest: The drastic reduction in government support and intervention could lead to significant social unrest as large portions of the population struggle to meet basic needs. This could destabilize the political landscape and potentially lead to a rise in radical movements or authoritarian responses.

• Privatization of Services: Many services currently provided by the government would likely be privatized, leading to increased costs for consumers and reduced access for those who cannot afford them. This could exacerbate inequality and reduce overall quality of life.

In essence, without the programs often labeled as socialist, our nation would likely see a more divided society with significant challenges related to poverty, health, education, and infrastructure. The country would most-definitely become less equitable, with greater hardships for the most vulnerable populations. This of course could lead to the least desirable of the original three systems mentioned above: communism and fascism.