“The Fourth Turning is Here,” but what does that mean?
Neil Howe and the late William Strauss’s Fourth Turning theory suggests that history follows a cyclical pattern of generational dynamics, broken into four “turnings,” each lasting approximately 20–25 years.
Having read pretty much everything written on this cycle of human history, alongside ChatGPT 4o (AI) I’ve put together this short (and incomplete) guide that covers the current and previous three Fourth Turning periods. Then, I expanded on the current saeculum (a normal, long life of 80 to 100 years) to illustrate the roles of the generations and provide a closing summary of how the current Fourth Turning has progressed, along with a very short hypothetical outcome.
Why Generations?
Howe and Strauss organized their Fourth Turning theory around “generations” because they observed that distinct patterns of behavior, attitudes, and roles emerge in society based on when people are born and how they experience formative historical events. By focusing on generations, they could link historical cycles to human lifespans, creating a framework that ties individual experiences to broader societal dynamics. Here’s why generations were central to their theory:
1. Generations as Agents of Change: Generations reflect the collective attitudes, values, and behaviors of people shaped by shared experiences during formative years. These shared experiences influence how a generation responds to and drives historical events:
- Childhood Experiences: Generations grow up in different societal climates (e.g., times of crisis, awakening, or stability), shaping their outlooks and priorities.
- Coming-of-Age Moments: Adolescence and early adulthood are when individuals often engage with the major events of their time, solidifying generational identities.
- Lifecycle Roles: Generations move through predictable stages of life—youth, midlife, elderhood—and contribute uniquely to society in each stage.
2. Historical Continuity and Predictability: By organizing history into generational cycles, Howe and Strauss identified recurring patterns over centuries:
- Every 80-100 years (a “saeculum” or “normal long life”), society goes through a full cycle of four turnings: High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis.
- Generations evolve through these turnings in predictable roles, shaping and being shaped by the societal mood of their time.
- This generational focus allowed them to link personal lives to historical events, showing how individuals contribute to collective shifts.
3. Generational Archetypes and Historical Roles: Howe and Strauss identified four recurring generational archetypes—Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist—that reappear in the same order across saecula. Each archetype plays distinct roles during the turnings:
- Prophet (Idealist): Visionaries who drive awakenings and cultural revolutions, often polarizing during crises.
- Nomad (Reactive): Pragmatic and independent, they stabilize society during turmoil but resist authority.
- Hero (Civic): Team-oriented and optimistic, they lead during crises and rebuild society afterward.
- Artist (Adaptive): Sensitive and cooperative, they refine and sustain new institutions during periods of peace.
These archetypes create a rhythm to history, where generational roles contribute to the resolution or intensification of societal challenges.
4. Generations Bridge Personal and Societal Change: Howe and Strauss wanted to explain how individual life stories intersect with major historical events. Generational theory provides a way to:
- Connect Personal and National Narratives: It explains why individuals of the same age group experience similar challenges and opportunities in response to societal changes.
- Highlight Intergenerational Tensions: Understanding generational dynamics illuminates conflicts and cooperation between older and younger generations, offering insights into societal evolution.
- Anticipate the Future: By identifying patterns in generational behavior, the theory helps predict how society may evolve in response to current challenges.
5. Historical Examples Validate Generational Patterns: Howe and Strauss drew on historical data, showing that generational cycles repeatedly aligned with major societal transformations:
- The Revolutionary War featured a Hero generation (Republican) rebuilding a new nation and Prophets (Awakeners) providing ideological guidance.
- The Civil War saw a clash of ideals driven by Prophets (Transcendentals) and practical action by Heroes (Union).
- The Great Depression and World War II showcased a Hero generation (G.I.s) creating a new global order under the influence of Prophet leaders (Missionary).
These patterns validated their decision to use generations as the organizing principle of their theory. Howe and Strauss focused on generations in their Fourth Turning theory because they provide a coherent way to connect individual life experiences with long-term societal cycles. Generations act as both products and drivers of history, shaping and being shaped by the turnings in a predictable rhythm. This generational framework gives the theory its explanatory power and predictive potential.
Generational Turnings Chart
The Fourth Turning is always a period of crisis, where institutions are destroyed and rebuilt, and society fundamentally reshapes itself. Here’s how the current Fourth Turning aligns with the previous three, along with the generational roles in each (see chart above for the birth years of each generation):
1. The Revolutionary War (1773–1794)
Crisis: The American colonies faced existential challenges, including the fight for independence from Britain, the Revolutionary War, and the establishment of the United States under the Constitution.
Hero (Civic): The Republican Generation, young soldiers and revolutionaries, were the driving force in the war effort and institutional rebuilding.
Artist (Adaptive): The Compromise Generation, children during the war, provided support and later helped refine and stabilize the new institutions.
Prophet (Idealist): The Awakening Generation, passionate and visionary leaders, like Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, provided ideological guidance.
Nomad (Reactive): The Liberty Generation, skeptical and pragmatic adults, navigated the chaotic social and economic conditions.
2. The Civil War (1860–1865)
Crisis: America grappled with the moral and political crisis of slavery, culminating in the Civil War, which threatened the nation’s survival. The period also involved Reconstruction and redefining national unity.
Generational Roles:
Hero (Civic): The Union Generation, young soldiers, fought on both sides of the war and later worked to rebuild the fractured nation.
Artist (Adaptive): The Gilded Generation, children during the war, matured in a period of rebuilding and reconciliation.
Prophet (Idealist): The Transcendental Generation, including abolitionists and reformers, ignited the ideological conflicts that precipitated the war.
Nomad (Reactive): The Lost Generation of the era provided pragmatic, albeit divisive, leadership during the prewar tensions and Reconstruction.
3. The Great Depression and World War II (1929–1946)
Crisis: The United States faced economic collapse, social upheaval, and the global challenge of fascism in World War II. The outcome redefined global power structures and solidified America’s role as a superpower.
Generational Roles:
Hero (Civic): The G.I. Generation, young soldiers and home-front workers, won the war and built the postwar institutions.
Artist (Adaptive): The Silent Generation, children during the war, helped maintain and refine postwar stability.
Prophet (Idealist): The Missionary Generation, shaped by the Progressive Era, provided moral and strategic leadership during the crisis.
Nomad (Reactive): The Lost Generation, cynical survivors of World War I, offered pragmatic leadership in an era of scarcity and hardship.
4. The Current Fourth Turning (2008–Present)
Crisis: The current period is marked by systemic financial instability (2008 financial crisis), political polarization, cultural upheaval, climate change, pandemics, and geopolitical tensions. A climaxing event (or series of events) is anticipated to reshape institutions and societal norms.
Generational Roles:
Hero (Civic): Millennials, coming of age during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to spearhead the rebuilding of society.
Artist (Adaptive): Generation Alpha (and youngest Gen Z), children during this era, will grow up in the shadow of crisis, emerging as a stabilizing force.
Prophet (Idealist): Baby Boomers, shaped by the consciousness revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, play a polarizing role as they try to impose their vision of values and legacy on the crisis.
Nomad (Reactive): Generation X, cynical and pragmatic, serves as midlife leaders and managers, navigating the chaos and working towards practical solutions.
Key Similarities Across the Fourth Turnings
Institutional Collapse and Renewal: Each Fourth Turning destroys outdated institutions and ideologies, leading to the creation of new systems better suited to the era’s needs.
Intergenerational Dynamics: Younger generations (Hero) take active roles in reshaping society, while older generations (Prophet) provide vision and older leadership (Nomad) stabilizes.
Pivotal Conflicts: All Fourth Turnings involve existential crises that redefine national identity and global positioning.
Economic and Social Restructuring: Major economic disruptions accompany each crisis, driving the need for structural reform.
Differences in the Current Fourth Turning
Globalization: Unlike earlier turnings, this crisis unfolds in a deeply interconnected world, with challenges like climate change requiring unprecedented global cooperation.
Technology: The digital revolution shapes both the crisis and the potential solutions, introducing rapid communication and societal transformation.
Cultural Fragmentation: The scale of political and cultural polarization in the current Fourth Turning may surpass previous crises, complicating resolution.
Predicted Outcome of the Current Fourth Turning
Like the prior crises, the current Fourth Turning is expected to conclude with a fundamental reshaping of society by the late 2020s or early 2030s. Whether this leads to renewal or decline depends on how the generational dynamics play out and whether society can successfully address its core challenges.
In the current saeculum, which began after World War II, we have experienced three completed turnings and are currently in the Fourth Turning. Here is a summary of each turning, along with the generational roles:
1. First Turning: The American High (1946–1964)
Overview: A postwar era of growth, optimism, and institutional confidence. Society was focused on collective goals, stability, and rebuilding from the war’s devastation. The Cold War began, shaping domestic and international policies. Key cultural elements included suburbanization, the baby boom, and the rise of consumerism.
Generational Roles:
Prophet (Idealist, Boomers): Children during this time, Boomers were raised with strong values and optimism, preparing to challenge the system in the future.
Nomad (Reactive, Silent Generation): Pragmatic young adults focused on adapting to the new stability and supporting institutional rebuilding.
Hero (Civic, G.I. Generation): Midlife leaders and builders, the G.I. Generation established strong institutions and guided the rebuilding effort.
Artist (Adaptive, Generation X): Too young to play a role, they were still being born.
2. Second Turning: The Consciousness Revolution (1964–1984)
Overview: A period of cultural upheaval and questioning of traditional institutions. Social movements like civil rights, feminism, environmentalism, and anti-war protests reshaped societal values. The economy stagnated, and political polarization grew.
Generational Roles:
Prophet (Idealist, Boomers): Young adults and activists, Boomers led the charge in questioning authority and sparking cultural movements.
Nomad (Reactive, Silent Generation): Midlife managers and cultural stabilizers, the Silent focused on family life and incremental change.
Hero (Civic, G.I. Generation): Elder statesmen and institutional defenders, they resisted the cultural upheaval and worked to maintain the status quo.
Artist (Adaptive, Generation X): Children during this time, Generation X grew up in an era of less supervision, leading to skepticism and independence.
3. Third Turning: The Culture Wars (1984–2008)
Overview: A period of individualism, deregulation, and weakening of institutions. Economic growth during the 1980s and 1990s masked underlying societal divides. The rise of political and cultural polarization defined the era, including debates over moral and societal values.
Generational Roles:
Prophet (Idealist, Boomers): Midlife leaders and ideologues, Boomers dominated political and cultural discourse, amplifying polarization.
Nomad (Reactive, Generation X): Young adults and pragmatists, Gen X adapted to institutional decay and focused on personal success.
Hero (Civic, Millennials): Children during this time, Millennials were protected and raised with an emphasis on teamwork and optimism, preparing to take on a unifying role in the future.
Artist (Adaptive, Silent Generation): Elder caretakers and guides, the Silent Generation played supporting roles as advisors and mediators.
4. Fourth Turning: The Crisis Era (2008–Present)
Overview: A period of systemic crisis and institutional breakdown, marked by the 2008 financial crash, political instability, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Society faces an existential challenge that will define the future. The resolution of this turning will reshape societal structures and values, as has occurred in prior Fourth Turnings.
Generational Roles:
Prophet (Idealist, Boomers): Elder ideologues, Boomers play polarizing roles, pushing for their vision of societal outcomes.
Nomad (Reactive, Generation X): Midlife pragmatists, Gen X leads in practical, managerial roles, navigating institutional failure.
Hero (Civic, Millennials): Young adults and societal rebuilders, Millennials are poised to take leadership roles in creating new systems.
Artist (Adaptive, Gen Z/Alpha): Children and young people, they are growing up in the shadow of crisis and will become stabilizers in the next saeculum.
Summary
The current saeculum follows the familiar pattern of rising institutions (First Turning), cultural awakening (Second Turning), institutional decay (Third Turning), and crisis (Fourth Turning). Each generation plays a distinct role shaped by the time in which they were born and raised, contributing uniquely to the resolution and direction of society at each stage. So how has the current saeculum (1946 to ??) played out and what is a possible hypothetical outlook on where we are headed?
The current saeculum, beginning after World War II, unfolded through a series of generational transitions and cultural shifts that have brought us to the present Fourth Turning—a time of crisis and potential rebirth. This saeculum began with a period of high institutional confidence, transitioned through cultural upheaval and fragmentation, and now finds itself at a crossroads where the decisions of today will shape the world for decades to come.
The First Turning: The American High (1946–1964)
The aftermath of World War II ushered in an era of optimism and institutional rebuilding. America became the world’s leading superpower, buoyed by its victory in the war and the economic prosperity of the postwar years. The Baby Boomer generation, born during this time, were raised in a stable and idealistic environment, shielded from the hardships their parents faced.
Society focused on collective goals, from the construction of suburban neighborhoods to the establishment of global alliances like NATO. This period saw the strengthening of institutions such as public education, social security, and the burgeoning civil rights movement, laying the groundwork for future change. Yet beneath this stability, the seeds of individualism and cultural questioning were being sown.
The Second Turning: The Consciousness Revolution (1964–1984)
The upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s shattered the conformity of the First Turning. Civil rights protests, the feminist movement, environmental activism, and opposition to the Vietnam War redefined societal values. Baby Boomers, now young adults, became the prophets of change, rejecting traditional authority and embracing personal liberation.
This awakening strained the institutions built during the prior turning, as faith in government, corporations, and religion began to falter. Watergate, stagflation, and the energy crises of the 1970s epitomized the period’s growing mistrust. Meanwhile, Generation X, coming of age in the shadow of this instability, learned to fend for themselves, developing a skeptical and pragmatic outlook.
The Third Turning: The Culture Wars (1984–2008)
During the 1980s and 1990s, society turned inward. The emphasis on individualism reached its peak as economic deregulation, technological innovation, and globalization reshaped the world. Political polarization deepened, with battles over cultural values defining the era. Millennials, born during this time, were raised with a strong sense of protection and teamwork, preparing them to become unifiers in the future.
Despite periods of prosperity, such as the dot-com boom, the cracks in societal cohesion widened. The 9/11 attacks signaled the fragility of the post-Cold War order, ushering in a new era of conflict and surveillance. By 2008, the financial crisis revealed the deep structural weaknesses in global systems, marking the end of the Third Turning and the beginning of the current Fourth Turning.
The Fourth Turning: The Crisis Era (2008–Present)
The Fourth Turning began with the Great Recession, a global financial collapse that destabilized economies and eroded trust in institutions. Political polarization escalated, as movements like the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street reflected widespread discontent. Millennials entered adulthood during these years, grappling with student debt, job precarity, and a sense of systemic betrayal.
The 2010s saw further fractures: rising authoritarianism, climate change disasters, and social unrest stemming from racial injustice and economic inequality. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 served as a global shock, exposing weaknesses in healthcare, governance, and international cooperation. Generation Z, shaped by these crises, is growing up in a world defined by uncertainty, yet with the potential to emerge as a stabilizing force in the future.
A Hypothetical Outlook for the Fourth Turning’s Climax and Resolution
As with prior Fourth Turnings, the current crisis will likely intensify before it resolves. A defining moment—a “climactic event” akin to the Revolutionary War, Civil War, or World War II—could occur. This could take the form of a geopolitical conflict, an unprecedented climate disaster, or a major societal reckoning over technology and governance. Whatever the crisis, it will demand collective action and sacrifice, reshaping societal priorities.
Generational Roles in the Resolution:
- Millennials (Hero): Now in leadership positions, Millennials will spearhead efforts to rebuild institutions, focusing on inclusivity, equity, and sustainability. Their emphasis on teamwork and community will drive the restructuring of systems.
- Generation X (Nomad): Pragmatic and experienced, Gen X will serve as crucial managers and mediators, ensuring that the rebuilding process is grounded in practicality.
- Boomers (Prophet): As elder statesmen or women, Boomers will provide ideological vision, though their polarizing influence may continue to complicate unity.
- Gen Z/Alpha (Artist): Coming of age during the rebuilding, these generations will solidify and refine the new systems, prioritizing stability and adaptability.
The Rebirth of a New Era
By the late 2020s or early 2030s, the Fourth Turning will likely resolve into a new First Turning, characterized by a period of optimism, reconstruction, and unity. The lessons of the crisis will shape a fresh set of institutions, reflecting the values of the rising generations. Climate resilience, technological ethics, and global cooperation may define this new era, offering hope for a brighter future.
As history has shown, the saeculum’s cycle continues, driven by the interplay of generational dynamics and societal challenges. The resolution of this Fourth Turning, though fraught with peril, holds the promise of renewal and transformation.
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Here's a listing of primary sources which provide a comprehensive overview of Howe and Strauss's Fourth Turning theory and its application to historical and contemporary events:
1. Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069. New York: William Morrow & Company, 1991 (introduces the concept of generational archetypes and the recurring patterns of generational cycles in American history)
2. Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny. New York: Broadway Books, 1997 (expands on the cyclical theory, focusing on the four turnings within a saeculum and predicting the onset of a crisis era in the early 21st century) – Penguin House bestseller
3. Strauss, William, and Neil Howe. Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation. New York: Vintage Books, 2000 (explores the millennial generation’s role in shaping the future, providing a closer look at how generational theory applies to contemporary times)
4. Hais, Michael, and Morley Winograd. Millennial Momentum: How a New Generation Is Remaking America. Piscataway: Rutgers University Press, 2011 (applies Strauss and Howe’s generational theory to the political and cultural impact of Millennials)
5. Howe, Neil. The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2023 (this recent book provides updated insights on the Fourth Turning, focusing on its development and potential resolution) – Amazon bestseller
Websites:
Fourth Turning Official Website: This site offers detailed information on the theory, including summaries of the four turnings and generational archetypes. https://www.fourthturning.com/
The Art of Manliness Podcast: An episode featuring Neil Howe delves into the Fourth Turning theory and its implications for current events. https://www.artofmanliness.com/character/knowledge-of-men/podcast-913-the-fourth-turning-how-historys-crisis-period-could-unfold/
WBUR Interview with Neil Howe: This interview discusses the current Fourth Turning and its significance for America. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2024/05/28/history-cycles-4th-turning
